Georgia’s political crisis poses a test for the EU

Since the 2003 Rose revolution, the flickering flame of democracy in Georgia has survived some powerful gusts: war with Russia; revolution leader Mikheil Saakashvili’s later authoritarian impulses; then eight years of political string-pulling by the billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili from his Bond villain-style mansion above Tbilisi. Now the flame could be snuffed out. The storming of the main opposition party headquarters and detention of its leader threatens the pluralism of the past decade and a half. It resembles what happens in Russia or other ex-Soviet neighbours rather than in what, until now, has been a beacon of political choice in a largely autocratic region.

In a crisis that has simmered for months, blame attaches to both sides. Courts increasingly seen as a tool of Ivanishvili’s governing Georgian Dream ordered the arrest of Nika Melia, chairman of Saakashvili’s old UNM party, who has led an opposition boycott of the country’s parliament since contested elections last autumn. Opposition groups alleged abuses after the poll produced not the coalition government they hoped for but a Georgian Dream majority. Western observers said the poll was competitive and encouraged opposition parties to take part in mediated talks with GD.

Melia had clashed with the authorities before. He was accused of inciting violence in June 2019 protests, but released on bail. In post-election protests last year, as well as hinting at a new revolution, he publicly ripped off a monitoring bracelet he had to wear as a bail requirement. Melia’s failure to restore the bracelet and post an increased bail demand led to an arrest order — ironically, on similar grounds to Russia’s detention of the opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Ivanishvili appeared to try to calm things by stepping down as Georgian Dream chairman last month and claiming he was leaving politics. The GD prime minister Giorgi Gakharia is to be commended for standing down last week as police were poised to detain Melia, saying the arrest would pose “unacceptable” risks. But he was quickly replaced by ex-premier Irakli Garibashvili, seen as a hardliner and Ivanishvili loyalist. On Tuesday morning, police seized Melia.

The arrest risks plunging the country again into political turmoil, or quasi-one party rule. Despite the government’s claim to be upholding the rule of law, it highlights the need for judicial reform to prevent courts from bending to the will of the ruling party. It does not mean Georgia will automatically drift back into the Russian fold, however. The GD government, like the main opposition parties, is still officially committed to Euro-Atlantic integration even if Ivanishvili has prodded it to take a less confrontational stance with Moscow and mend ties.

If those pro-western ambitions are to remain on track, all parties should seek to de-escalate the situation. A resolution might be possible involving withdrawing charges against Melia in return for his party dropping demands for new elections and re-engaging with the political process. But Tbilisi’s desire for closer western ties gives the US and EU leverage. They should make clear a slide to authoritarianism makes integration impossible, and those responsible will be penalised.

Showing the EU can still exert such clout is all the more vital in light of its absurdly pusillanimous response to Moscow’s seizure of Navalny — sanctioning just four officials. If it cannot defend its values even in a country such as Georgia that signed up to its pro-democracy “Eastern Partnership” programme, its credibility as an international actor will be sorely diminished.