China holds the key to stabilising Myanmar

Day by day, the situation in Myanmar becomes more desperate. The military that retook power in February after 10 years of democratisation is following the same playbook that defeated pro-democracy protests twice before in the past three decades: deploying such brutality that the opposition is forced to retreat. More than 550 people have died since the coup, including at least 169 on March 27 alone. So far, however, the protesters are not backing down. The risk is mounting of all-out conflict, or a collapse into chaos.

Peaceful protests have been combined with a concerted campaign of civil disobedience that has shut down banks and distribution, and left goods piling up at the ports. Prices for staples are rising. The military met the demonstrations first with water cannon, tear gas and stun grenades, then with lethal force. Snipers have targeted protesters seen as ringleaders.

The bloodshed may eventually subdue the unrest. But the resistance this time seems stronger. Protesters have had 10 years of political freedoms. Though the military ordered wireless broadband shut down on Friday, they have been able to use smartphones to broadcast atrocities, co-ordinate action, and stay connected to a digital generation that crosses borders. While there is no sign yet that demonstrators have acquired firearms, some groups are pushing for armed resistance. Regional ethnic armed groups might also be drawn into conflict with the army.

Even if outright conflict can be avoided, the UN World Food Programme has warned that the unrest and economic malaise could push the 54m-strong country into hunger. Either way, history suggests the Tatmadaw’s instinct will be to double down. Observers such as the International Crisis Group warn of potential “state collapse”.

Sadly, some world powers are ready to co-operate with the junta. Russia, Myanmar’s second biggest weapons supplier after China, sent its deputy foreign minister to the country’s Armed Forces Day late last month. As in Syria, where its military support has helped President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to survive the civil war, Moscow appears to see Myanmar as an opportunity to defy western democracies and play a regional powerbroker role.

Other countries are still grappling for ways to press Myanmar’s military to back down. The US and UK have imposed sanctions; Myanmar’s Civil Disobedience Movement has successfully shamed governments — including officials from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — into not meeting with junta officials. While the UN Security Council has been unable to agree on an arms embargo to the Tatmadaw, countries should stop selling arms or tools of surveillance, and declare that they are doing so. They should shame Russia for supplying guns to a regime that uses them to kill its own people.

The one thing that might sway the military would be concerted pressure from Myanmar’s nearest and most powerful neighbours — India and, above all, China. Their leaders should use what communications channels they have to spell out the choice to the military: ruling over a ruined economy and an overwhelmingly resistant population, or backing down. China is Myanmar’s biggest trading partner and investor, shares a border and — while it cares little about a reversal of democracy — has a vested interest in keeping the country stable. Despite its “cold war” with the US, those factors in theory give Beijing reason to send a unified message with western democracies and India to the regime in Naypyidaw. If it does not, Myanmar may already be on the way to becoming a failed state.