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China-UK Spat Brewing Over May’s Belt and Road Caution

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A woman attends a welcoming ceremony to mark the inaugural trip of the first freight train to travel from China to Britain on January 18, 2017. Photo: Reuters/Stefan Wermuth

When Theresa May lands in China on Wednesday it will be the first official visit by a British Prime Minister in five years. The last was by her predecessor, David Cameron, in 2013, when he arrived with 120 businesspeople. That was described at the time as Britain’s “biggest ever” trade delegation, befitting Cameron’s equally grand economic target of doubling the volume of UK-China trade by 2015.

Trade has increased – but by nowhere near that amount. Cameron’s trip was, though, the first tangible step in what, by 2016, was being described as a “golden relationship” of bilateral trade. Now, with the countries’ plethora of trade deals as yet undelivered, that relationship is reported to be in jeopardy this week over Beijing’s insistence that May’s government give official endorsement to China’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

It could be the start of an absorbing diplomatic tussle. Britain is weakened because of Brexit, and desperate for strong trade partnerships. May herself has been on the sharp end of sustained criticism – from her own Conservative party, and others – over her purported lack of purpose and direction, both on domestic issues and on Brexit. Talk has surfaced again about how much longer she will be in office. She desperately needs some good news.

Aware of all this, China has, in recent months, seemed very keen on getting the UK to rubber-stamp BRI, which President Xi Jinping views as “the project of the century.” But in recent weeks and months, BRI has come under increasing scrutiny and criticism – from the USA, India, Germany and France, among others – with regard to China’s real agenda.

French President Emmanuel Macron, in his early January trip to China, made a point of saying China and Europe had to work together on the Belt and Road, arguing that if the initiative was “one-way” it could not work. “After all, the ancient Silk Roads were never only Chinese,” said Macron.

So, not for the first time, May finds herself between a rock and a hard place.

May had to postpone this trip to China on a number of occasions due to her pressing domestic agenda, but ostensibly the trip was first arranged because London and Beijing have, since last year, said they will sign a free-trade deal when the UK leaves the EU in 2019.

With that in mind, May will arrive in China with her own trade delegation. It’s not as grand as Cameron’s but still significant: she travels with a 50-plus entourage of figures from British businesses, educational establishments and industry associations – ranging from representatives of the Scotch Whisky Association to directors from the luxury car maker Aston Martin. In recent days, Beijing has seemed to shift the focus sharply away from talk of a trade deal to talk of BRI.

China’s Ambassador to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, said in an official announcement on Friday that Belt and Road discussions would be “among the highlights” of the British Prime Minister’s trip. “The Belt and Road Initiative will not only provide new growth point for China-UK cooperation,” said Liu, “but also help the ‘Golden Era’ of China-UK relations to yield more Golden fruits.”

After the Ambassador’s announcement, the Financial Times quoted UK government officials as saying the British delegation’s planned roundtable discussions with Chinese businesses executives were now “at risk of being scrapped,” after May pushed back on giving the Belt and Road any formal British endorsement.

And then, on Monday, in reaction to the FT story, China’s state-owned Global Times newspaper wrote that any western view of BRI as a political gambit by Beijing was “unnecessary paranoia.” It added that “formal endorsement from the UK for the [BRI] would be great, but there is no need for China to force the UK to do so.”

China, the newspaper concluded – in the politest of geopolitical threats – “has signed cooperative agreements with more than 80 countries and organizations” and “will surely continue its efforts to implement it, whether the UK supports it or not.”

May’s office has understandably attempted to try to contain and play down the spat. On Monday night, Downing Street would only say that the Prime Minister will find out more about BRI when she is in China. According to the FT, however, the UK’s planning for the trip has been thrown into chaos because Chinese officials have been refusing to return calls.

On key initiatives, China is famously intransigent. David Cameron learned this after he agreed to meet with the Dalai Lama in London in 2012. Afterwards, London was frozen out of trade negations and Cameron was forced to cancel a planned trip to China after it was made clear that no senior officials there would be free to meet him. Only when he stated that he would not be meeting the Dalai Lama again did communication channels fully open again, paving the way for that 2013 trade delegation and the subsequent “golden relationship.”

David Cameron was a gung-ho risk-taking opportunist. Theresa May is not. She is more cautious and, for all her supposed faults, she appears to be driven by the belief that, ultimately, she is in public life to serve Britain. As such, she seems very reluctant to formally endorse BRI. China is very keen for her to do so. The next few days should be interesting.

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Automaker Daimler AG to pay $1.5 billion to settle emissions cheating probes

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Daimler AG Chief Executive Officer Dieter Zetsche (C) speaks to the media after he unveiled the Mercedes-Benz Concept Style Coupe at Auto China 2012 in Beijing April 23, 2012. China's premium car market should grow 15-20 percent this year, Zetsche said on Monday, adding that Daimler's sales should at least match that rate. Zetsche also said he expects the company's Mercedes-Benz luxury brand to post a sales increase in Europe this year. REUTERS/Jason Lee

Automaker Daimler AG and subsidiary Mercedes-Benz USA have agreed to pay $1.5 billion to the U.S. government and California state regulators to resolve emissions cheating allegations, officials said Monday.

The U.S. Department of Justice, Environmental Protection Agency and the California attorney general’s office say Daimler violated environmental laws by using so-called “defeat device software” to circumvent emissions testing and sold about 250,000 cars and vans in the U.S. with diesel engines that didn’t comply with state and federal laws.

The settlement, which includes civil penalties, will also require Daimler to fix the vehicles, officials said. In addition, the company will pay $700 million to settle U.S. consumer lawsuits.

The Stuttgart, Germany-based automaker said on Aug. 13 that it had agreements with the Justice Department, Environmental Protection Agency, Customs and Border Protection, the California Air Resources Board and others over civil and environmental claims involving about 250,000 diesel cars and vans.

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler said Daimler did not disclose all of its software, which included “devices designed to defeat emissions controls.”

In a statement, Daimler said it denies the allegations that it cheated and does not admit to any liability in the U.S. The settlements resolve civil proceedings without any determination that Mercedes and Daimler vehicles used defeat devices, the company said. Plus, Daimler said it did not receive a notice of violation of the Clean Air Act from the EPA or California regulators, which is common when defeat devices are used.

The company said it is not obligated to buy back the vehicles, as Volkswagen was, nor will it have an independent monitor to track its progress on the settlement. “By resolving these proceedings, Daimler avoids lengthy court actions with respective legal and financial risks,” the company said.

Daimler also said the emissions control system in the U.S. vehicles is different than models sold in Europe because of different regulatory and legal requirements.

Daimler AG said the settlement would bring costs of about $1.5 billion, while the civil settlement will bring a one-off charge of $875 million. It estimated that “further expenses of a mid three-digit-million” euros would be required to fulfill conditions of the settlements.

Daimler said it owners of model year 2009 through 2016 Mercedes cars and 2010 through 2016 Sprinter vans with “BlueTEC II” diesel engines will be notified of recalls to fix excessive vehicle emissions. Customers will be notified by mail starting late this year, and the company will set up a customer website, Daimler said in a statement.

Owners also will get mailed notices and a website with details of the civil lawsuit settlement including a claim form, Daimler said. The company also will pay attorneys fees of around $83 million.

Steve Berman, a lawyer involved in the class-action lawsuits against Daimler, said in a statement that current owners can get $3,290 or more, while former owners can get $822.50.

“Owners of Mercedes’ dirty diesel cars will finally be able to receive the compensation they deserve and repairs to ensure their vehicles are not emitting illegal levels of harmful pollutants,” Berman said.

Deputy Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen said the cost of the Daimler settlement is likely to send a message to deter other companies from engaging in similar conduct.

“We expect that this relief will also serve to deter any others who may be tempted to violate our nation’s pollution laws in the future,” Rosen said.

As part of the U.S. government settlement, Daimler will pay an $875 million civil penalty — about $3,500 for each vehicle that was sold in the U.S. The company will also be required to fix the vehicles and will need to replace some old locomotive engines with newer, low nitrogen oxide-emitting engines that should offset the illegal emissions from its vehicles, Rosen said. A Justice Department official said the company did not have to admit guilt as part of the settlement.

In addition, officials in California will receive $17.5 million for future environmental enforcement, as well as to support environmentally-beneficial projects in the state, officials said.

“Long term, cheating isn’t the smartest way to market your product. Daimler is finding that out today. But they’re not the first — nor likely the last — to try,” said California Attorney General Xavier Becerra.

Daimler’s pollution practices also are under investigation in Germany.

In April 2016, the Justice Department asked Daimler to conduct an internal probe into its exhaust emissions certification process. The request came as the EPA began checking all diesel engines after the Volkswagen cheating was revealed.

Volkswagen, ended up paying $2.8 billion to settle a criminal case due to emissions cheating. Fiat Chrysler also is being investigated for allegedly cheating on emissions.

VW admitted that it turned on pollution controls when vehicles were being tested in EPA labs, and turning them off when the diesel vehicles were on real roads. The company duped the EPA for years before being discovered by a nonprofit climate group and researchers at West Virginia University. In September 2019, federal prosecutors charged a Fiat Chrysler engineer with rigging pollution tests on more than 100,000 diesel pickup trucks and SUVs sold in the U.S., the first indictment since a wave of similar cases against Volkswagen and its managers.

The alleged scheme isn’t as large as the Volkswagen emissions scandal, which involved nearly 600,000 vehicles. But the charges showed that investigators are still on the case, even after Fiat Chrysler agreed to a $650 million civil settlement.

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Bitcoin’s ascent will be slow & steady: Bloomberg

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Megabulls such as PlanB are predicting parabolic short- to medium-term price moves for bitcoin, but Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes the leading digital asset’s ascent to $100,000 will be a slow, steady and almost inexorable grind.

The senior commodity strategist at the financial news service believes bitcoin will steadily appreciate because of its fixed supply combined with a growing demand.

“I don’t see what [could] make it stop doing what [it’s] been doing for the last 10 years. And that’s going up,” he told Cointelegraph in a video interview.

McGlone thinks bitcoin could become a better store of value than gold, the traditional safe haven, because its supply is capped. Unlike gold, the total potential supply of which is unknown, bitcoin is inherently scarce; there will never be more than 21 million , and many of the ones already mined have been lost forever, thus increasing the potential value of those that remain accessible.

As demand for the digital asset grows, the price will inevitably go up, explained McGlone. He pointed out that the number of active bitcoin addresses is increasing rapidly and that more and more bitcoin is flowing into regulated exchanges, both of which are strong indications of increasing demand.

But he said investors shouldn’t expect bitcoin to soar to gobsmacking new highs on the short term as it has historically following its reward halvings – it climbed from around $1,000 to nearly $20,000 in the last bull run, before crashing hard in early 2018. Now that it is a mature asset, he said its price behaviour will be less dramatic.

When asked about Pantera Capital’s prediction that bitcoin will soar to $115,000 in just a year, McGlone said, “Bitcoin 10x? Maybe over 10 years, that makes a lot of sense.”

Read: Bitcoin is set to become digital gold: Bloomberg

Asia Times Financial is now live. Linking accurate news, insightful analysis and local knowledge with the ATF China Bond 50 Index, the world’s first benchmark cross sector Chinese Bond Indices. Read ATF now. 

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Investors offload risk after Fed gets real

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A man with a protective mask walks in the rain past an electronic stock board showing Japan's Nikkei. AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko

Hong Kong: Financial markets in Asia retreated on Thursday over disappointment that the US central bank did not expand its asset purchase programme, although it did reiterate its ‘lower for longer’ message.

The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged was expected by the market but investors sold off stocks as a dovish Fed weakened the dollar against the yen, whose strength in turn hammered exporters’ prospects.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.2% to 104.7 to the dollar.

“The yen currently sits at around ¥105 against the dollar – that’s a little stronger than in the summer but far weaker than what the current spread between JGBs and US Treasuries would usually point to,” Capital Economics analysts Tom Learmouth and Marcel Thieliant said, referring to the narrowing of the spread. “While we expect the yen to remain close to ¥105 the risks are tilted slightly towards a stronger yen.”

The drag from exporters pulled down Japan’s Nikkei 225 index which fell 0.67%, while Australia’s S&P ASX 200 slipped 1.22% as investors worried about a rollback of stimulus after data released showed a drop in the unemployment rate.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also retreated 1.56% as investors prepared for a slew of IPOs including the world’s biggest – the Ant Financial $30-billion bonanza expected next month. At least three share offerings are expected next week as well, as issuers avoid a clash with Ant Financial’s mammoth offering. Delivery company ZTO Express, biotech company Zai Lab and online retailer Baozun are in a race for cash.

China’s CSI300 eased 0.53% as the region remained under pressure following disappointment over the US central bank’s unchanged asset purchase programme.

‘Congress must step up’

“And while risk assets might love the intravenous drip of monetary stimulus, it is time to focus on policies that the real economy needs, and for that, Powell is dead right, it’s time for Congress to step up to the plate,” Robert Carnell, ING Bank’s Regional Head of Research in the Asia-Pacific, said.

“Perhaps the market reaction here is more a realisation of this and the fact that any resolution to the current impasse is unlikely until the Presidential election outcome is determined.”

US Treasuries picked on the Fed’s ‘dot plot’, extending its gains with the 10-year yield declining 2 basis points to 0.68%.

The Federal Reserve’s dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, projects no change in policy this year and borrowing costs near zero through till 2023, based on median estimates. It said they must achieve maximum employment and inflation at a rate of 2% over the longer run.

“The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4% and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time.”

Asia Stocks

· Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped 0.67%

· Australia’s S&P ASX 200 slipped 1.22%

· Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index retreated 1.56%

· China’s CSI300 eased 0.53%

· The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.70%.

Stock of the day

Times China bonds rose and shares fell after it announced a plan to buy back its bonds due in 2021.

This report appeared initially on Asia Times Financial.

Asia Times Financial is now live. Linking accurate news, insightful analysis and local knowledge with the ATF China Bond 50 Index, the world’s first benchmark cross sector Chinese Bond Indices. Read ATF now. 

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