Telegraf – The CSA Index for April 2024 decreased to 65.8 from March’s 67.6, indicating a lack of optimism among market participants regarding the JCI’s performance. Market sentiment shifted to a more realistic view of the JCI’s potential, following its 0.37% decline and closure at 7288 in March 2024.
Despite this, market consensus still anticipates a positive movement in April, with a target gain of 7438 or 0.82%, driven by optimism from positive first-quarter 2024 performance and stable post-election political conditions.
Market participants are expected to increase transaction activity after a relatively quiet Ramadhan month.
Commenting on the CSA Index for April 2024, NS. Aji Martono, Chairman of PROPAMI, remarked that market participants’ optimism appears to be stagnating, with hopes pinned on additional positive sentiment from issuers’ performance in 2024 and pro-market policies.
Market participants foresee several negative sentiments impacting the JCI. The absence of an interest rate cut may slow down the economy, while the Fed’s indecision on this matter adds pressure to the exchange rate.
Concerns arise from global economic slowdowns and the increasing number of countries facing or potentially facing recession.
New trade regulations necessitate market participants’ adjustment to new trading mechanisms.
However, positive sentiment may arise from increased consumption during Ramadan, potentially improving the performance of issuers in the consumer sector.
Additionally, outflows from the Government Securities market could enter the stock market.
Looking ahead, the CSA Index for April 2024 is recorded at 92.1 for the next 12 months, indicating market players’ continued optimism about the JCI’s performance.
Market participants aim for the JCI to strengthen to 7479 in the next twelve months, a 5.35% increase from its March 2024 closing position.
Despite a reduction in target compared to March 2024, the JCI remains a viable option for the long term.
Market participants remain hopeful for positive first-quarter issuer performance to bolster the JCI, building on the positive results seen in 2023.
Additionally, the expectation of a Fed rate cut serves as a positive catalyst for maintaining a positive JCI target.
The Financials sector emerges as the top choice among market participants to drive the JCI in April, with positive annual results supporting this preference.
Furthermore, the Energy and Consumer Non-Cyclicals sectors are also considered viable options, reflecting market participants’ consistent choices in recent months.
