JCI in February 2024: Most Promising Stocks and Investment

Telegraf – The CSA Index for February 2024 was 59.7, indicating a decline in the level of optimism compared to January, which reached 83.7. This decline
suggests that market participants are less enthusiastic about trading in February.

Contents

5 Top Gainers 5 Top Losers Shares 5 Shares Net Buy Foreign Investors 5 Shares Net Sell Foreign Investors

The reasons cited by many market participants for this decline are the elections held this month and the weakening of the Rupiah exchange rate. Despite the decrease, a number above 50 indicates that more market participants are predicting IDX Composite to be bullish in February.

The consensus for IDX Compositeâ€™s February 2024 closing is 7,258, indicating a slight increase from the January 2024 closing at 7,207.

Based on the results of in-depth interviews, it is evident that market participants perceive the uncertainty due to the election as quite high.

If the election concludes in one round, it will be a positive development, allowing market participants to promptly allocate their assets to adjust to the election results.

CSA Index IHSG Konsensus Feb 24 (Source : CSA Institute)

However, if there are two rounds, uncertainty will persist until the second round of elections is held.

Additionally, the weakening Rupiah and the potential increase in geopolitical tensions are believed to make it harder for IDX Composite to advance.

The heightened geopolitical tension is thought to have a significant impact on global supply chains, while expectations of an interest rate cut by the Fed in March are diminishing. 93.4% of market participants remain optimistic that the IDX Composite will experience a bullish trend over the next twelve months.

This figure is higher than the 93.0% optimism recorded for the annual IDX Composite movement in January.

The most influential positive sentiment is that market participants believe economic growth will still be good in 2024, and there is hope that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this year.

CSA Index IHSG Konsensus 12M Forecast. (Source : CSA Institute)

The expectation of improved performance by issuers after the election is also a reason why investors believe the IDX Composite will continue to grow in 2024.

Market participants are targeting the IDX Composite to strengthen to the level of 7,697 in the next twelve months.

This indicates that the IDX Composite is expected to strengthen by 489 points or 6.78% from its closing position at the end of January 2024.

This target is based on the recognition of several negative sentiments with longterm effects, such as increased geopolitical risks and a slowdown in the world economy.

Despite volatility in commodity prices and exchange rates in the next 12 months, Indonesia’s economy is still expected to grow.

Market participants are eagerly anticipating the policy direction of the government to be elected in the next election, which is expected to further support IDX Composite growth.

CSA Index Sektor Pilihan Feb 24. (Source : CSA Institute)

Dr. David Sutyanto, CSA, General Chair of AAEI responded to the results of the CSA Index Feb 24 “CSA Index Feb 24 shows that market players’ optimism is decreasing in facing trading in February 2024.

This is due to the election event and the decreasing possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates in the near future.

However, the JCI is projected to still strengthen even though it is limited.

The election is the main factor that creates uncertainty, with the market tending to “wait and see” until a new president is elected.

The CSA Index also examines the sectors that will be the main drivers for the IDX Composite in February.

The financial sector is the top choice for the majority of market participants as a sector that can spur the IDX Composite.

The release of banking financial reports with results above expectations and low valuations makes this sector favoured.

Apart from the financial sector, the non-primary consumer goods sector is also the second most preferred.

This indicates that the level of domestic consumption is still maintained, reflecting optimism about domestic economic conditions.

In the view of NS. Aji Martono, the Chairman of PROPAMI, the market is likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach, evaluating the future vision for Indonesia, particularly in economic sectors and policies impacting the capital market.

While acknowledging the historical technical and fundamental significance of the CSA Index, Aji emphasizes the importance of caution, even during election-related market upswings, by considering both technical and fundamental analyses.

Foreign investors in early February bought up shares with a net buy of IDR 886.17 billion.

Throughout 2024, foreign investors’ net buy will reach IDR 9.21 trillion.