Smoke and mirrors over Russia’s skirmish with a UK warship in Crimean waters

The accusations and recriminations were serious with potentially severe repercussions. Russia’s Defence Ministry had claimed that warning shots were fired and a bomb dropped on the path of a British warship in the Black Sea.

The British government claimed that no such warning shots were fired and HMS Defender, a Type 45 destroyer, was on international waters.  The Ministry of Defence in London also stated that the Russian military was carrying out gunnery exercises, and had, indeed given international shipping adequate warning of this.

Moscow’s version of events was quite specific. The HMS Defender had gone into Russian territorial waters for two miles, it ran,  ignoring  warnings to stay away, and thus received warning shots from two patrol boats. When she kept advancing, a Sukhoi SU-24 fighter bomber dropped two guided bombs on to its navigational path.

The denial of Moscow’s version of events by the British MoD was followed by Ben Wallace, UK Defence Secretary, saying in a statement that HMS Defender was carrying out a “routine transit” when it entered the internationally recognised traffic corridor. The Defence Secretary  accused Vladimir Putin’s  government of dissembling “disinformation and misinformation.” A Downing Street spokesman reiterated that the destroyer had taken “the most direct and internationally recognised route between Ukraine and Georgia”.

The Black Sea has been disputed waters ever since Russia annexed Crimea, until then a part of Ukraine, in 2014 and there had been a number of confrontations between Russian and Ukrainian vessels in the intervening time.

But why should there be a flashpoint now? What really happened? Jonathan Beale, the BBC’s security correspondent,  who is on board HMS Defender reports that the destroyer had been shadowed by two Russian coastguard ships which had tried to alter its course at the southern tip of Crimea in what the officer in charge of the destroyer, commander Vincent Owen, insisted were internationally recognised shipping lanes.

There had been messages of increasing hostility from the Russians including a threat to open fire. “We did hear some firing in the distance but they were believed to be well out of range”, said Mr Beale. Commander Owen also said that up to 20 military aircraft had buzzed the ship over a period.y

So, no shots were fired at the British warship and no bombs dropped, according to this account. But it was still a potentially risky situation. The crew on board HMS Defender were at action stations and the weapons system was being loaded.

So what could have led to this ? According to some military sources and analysts the Russians may have wanted to counter a series of highly publicised military actions and exercises by the UK.

The Royal Navy had been taking part in a naval exercise in the Black Sea with the navies of the US and also Ukraine, whose warships have been in regular confrontation with Russia. In an agreement signed on board HMS Defender, the UK pledged to strengthen Ukraine’s naval capabilities.

HMS Defender is part of a strike group led by the new British aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, which started military operations against Isis while in the Mediterranean. British and American F-35B Stealth jets taking part in missions against Isis in Syria and Iraq also,  it was claimed,  “denied airspace” to Russian aircraft flying in an area in support of Bashar al-Assad’s Damascus regime.

Also this week, a major military exercise took place in a Middle-East state involving British forces in an operation tied to the HMS Elizabeth carrier strike group. The exercise took place in an area where Moscow has strategic interests.

It is, of course, also possible that other factors contributed to the incident involving HMS Defender. But the confrontation illustrates the hazards which may occur from the presence of heavily armed forces in a volatile region.