Green shot at the German chancellery

Germans call it the “K Question”: Who will be the Kanzlerkandidat, or chancellor candidate?

September’s federal elections will be historic — and not just because they will mark the end of Angela Merkel’s 16 years in power. Germany’s Green party will also make its first real bid for the top job.

“This time, people who vote for the Greens will vote hoping that the Greens will win the chancellery,” says Ansgar Graw of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a centre-right leaning think-tank.

For decades, Merkel’s centre-right CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats have dominated Germany’s governments. But polling suggests the Greens have multiple paths to becoming a coalition partner, and not just to repeat the 1998-2005 experience when they ruled as a junior partner to the SPD.

Consistently polling above 20 per cent, while support for the CDU/CSU dwindles on the back of a pandemic procurement scandal and a raucous leadership race, the Greens could have a real shot at the chancellery itself.

The Greens joked that they would wait “until the trees turned green” to announce their lead candidate. Their announcement later on Monday looks to be good timing, and not just for Berlin’s blossoms: as the Brussels Briefing goes to press, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, are locked in a fractious row over the selection of their joint candidate to succeed Merkel.

By comparison, the Greens’ co-leaders — Annalena Baerbock, 40, and Robert Habeck, 51 — have kept it cool. The pair runs their party with a style the Greens call “co-operative leadership”. Members from the left and moderate wings agree they have created an unusual level of discipline.

The Greens’ choice between Baerbock, “the pragmatist” and Habeck, “the philosopher”, is not even being put to the party’s rank and file: the duo agreed to decide between themselves, in another sign of how the party is shifting from its chaotic grassroots to the streamlined decision-making of a contender seeking power.

Baerbock, a trampoline champion in her youth, is the Berlin parliamentary operative, always prepared with the facts. Habeck — a writer who has penned everything from children’s books to a pandemic-era treatise on social transformation — is better with crowds, but prone to gaffes.

Analysts have painted Baerbock as wonky and Habeck as big-picture. But Arne Jungjohann from the Heinrich Böll Institute, a green-leaning think-tank, said there was no point in trying to differentiate the figures from a political standpoint. Both are moderates who will pitch not to the left but straight to Germany’s conservative, stability-craving centre.

Most bets are on Baerbock. It would be crazy, many Greens said, not to put up a younger woman against a crowd of older white men.

But no matter which of the co-leaders steps aside, it could turn into an advantage for them come September: if the Greens come in second and become the junior party in the next government coalition, that person is almost certain to scoop up a senior ministerial post.

Some Greens are wary of embracing the idea that this could really be their year. The party has a pattern of rising high in the polls only to see their numbers crash on election day.

But by putting forward a single chancellor nominee — as opposed to simply campaigning with their two leading candidates — they are sending a message. “We are serious about this,” one party insider said. “We want to govern.”

Chart du jour: Skewed priorities for saving the planet

Most people can’t correctly identify which lifestyle changes would be most effective at reducing their carbon footprint, according to a major survey. Air drying clothes — a popular suggestion — would save just 0.2 tonnes of carbon emissions a year per person. By contrast, using less carbon-intensive forms of travel instead of driving a car could prevent 2.4 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from being released each year in a developed country. (chart via FT)

Planet Europe

• Supporters of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny have called on Russians to protest against his harsh treatment in prison, warning that his death could be imminent. The US has warned Moscow of “consequences” if Navalny dies. Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, said she was “deeply worried” about his health. (FT)

• The Czech Republic plans to expel 18 Russian diplomats over suspicions that Russia’s security services were involved in explosions at a Czech ammunition dump in 2014. (FT)

• John Kerry of the US and Xie Zhenhua of China, the climate envoys for the world’s two biggest economies, have vowed to co-operate “to tackle the climate crisis”. (FT)

• The European Commission was split over whether to postpone an upcoming decision on classifying gas generated from fossil fuels as green energy under its system for investors. (FT)

• Maros Sefcovic, the EU’s Brexit chief, has told the FT that he was convinced solutions could be found to minimise disruption in Northern Ireland. (FT)

• Small companies should face the same responsibilities as those imposed on web giants such as Amazon and eBay when it comes to policing criminal activities online, according to a coalition of trade bodies. A letter to be sent to MEPs by the Know Your Business Customer coalition said the EU’s Digital Services Act misses the opportunity to address “the broad range of illegal content and counterfeit, unsafe and substandard products online”.

Coming up this week

Foreign affairs ministers are due to meet on Monday. A citizens’ digital platform on the Conference on the Future of Europe will also be launched, with a press conference at 13.00 (CET).

Europe ministers hold a general affairs council meeting on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the commission is due to release a follow-up to its white paper on artificial intelligence.

Joe Biden will host a virtual climate summit on Thursday. EU energy and environment ministers hold informal meetings on Thursday and Friday.

erika.solomon@ft.com; @ErikaSolomon
sam.fleming@ft.com; @Sam1Fleming