Western unity is key to dealing with Russia

In the army bases of southern Russia and the airfields of annexed Crimea, troops and tanks, helicopters and fighters are massing once again. The Pentagon says Russia’s military build-up on the borders of neighbouring Ukraine is bigger even than before its armed intervention in 2014-15; German chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday called the situation “extremely tense”. America’s ambassador to Moscow is flying home for consultations. What western countries say and do now may determine just how far Russian president Vladimir Putin is prepared to go.

The Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, meanwhile, lies gravely ill in a prison hospital, after a three-week hunger strike. The opposition leader was jailed on a spurious pretext after his bold return to Russia from Berlin where he recuperated from an attempt to assassinate him using the novichok nerve agent. Half a million Russians have registered online to take part in protests in Navalny’s support on Wednesday, hours after Putin makes a State of the Union address.

Russia’s military manoeuvres near Ukraine, however, are far more than a diversionary tactic from the Navalny affair and domestic disquiet over a stagnant economy. The Kremlin is determined to prevent the integration into the west of what it views as a Slavic brother state and strategic buffer zone. The Minsk II accord that president Petro Poroshenko signed in 2015, his forces pinned down by Russian-led militias in eastern Ukraine, seemed to give Moscow leverage. It promised the breakaway Donbass republics a place in Ukraine’s power structures and an effective veto on its political course.

Six years on, much of the Minsk deal is unimplemented by either side, and Volodymyr Zelensky, the comic actor who succeeded Poroshenko as president in 2019, has proved less biddable than Moscow expected. Putin, some longtime Russia watchers suggest, wants closure. Only he and his inner circle know his real intentions, but Russia has proved ready both to rattle sabres to scare neighbours into concessions, and to use force directly — even in the heart of the European continent.

As they seek to respond to Russia’s challenges on multiple fronts, the first priority for western democracies must be clarity and consistency of messaging and action. French president Emmanuel Macron’s attempts at “trust-building dialogue” with Putin in recent years, though well intentioned, yielded little but muddied the diplomatic waters. For all Merkel’s concerns, her government still supports the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will deliver more Russian gas direct to Germany.

It is vital the US and its allies are united in stressing that further Russian aggression towards its sovereign neighbour of more than 43m people would carry substantial costs. They should make clear their willingness to supply lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine if it is attacked, including anti-tank and other defensive systems. Though Nato countries are rightly wary of being sucked into a conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia, they should be ready to strengthen their own forces in south-east Europe as a deterrent.

The US and EU should be ready, too, to step up economic sanctions. President Joe Biden last week banned US financial institutions from buying new Russian sovereign debt as punishment for alleged cyber hacking, signalling a willingness to use the US financial system against opponents. European countries should redouble efforts to reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels, including finally blocking Nord Stream 2. If the west wants to appear serious about preventing Russia’s leader from trampling on international norms, it must be prepared to bear some costs.