Sturgeon’s account ‘hard to believe’, Holyrood committee concludes

A Scottish parliamentary committee has concluded by a majority that it is “hard to believe” first minister Nicola Sturgeon’s account of when she learned of concerns about the behaviour of her predecessor Alex Salmond.

The second leak in two days of the conclusions of the inquiry into the Scottish government’s handling of sexual harassment complaints against Salmond came less than a week before campaigning starts for elections that Sturgeon hopes will pave the way for a second referendum on independence from the UK.

It prompted the first minister to issue a strongly worded denunciation of the committee, accusing it of resorting to “baseless assertion, supposition and smear” and operating from “base political motives”.

Local broadcaster STV reported on Friday that the committee had decided to express scepticism about Sturgeon’s claim that she first heard about potential sexually inappropriate behaviour by Salmond in November 2017. A person familiar with the deliberations confirmed the decision, reached by a 5-4 majority.

“The latest leak from the committee, suggesting they find it ‘hard to believe’ that the first minister did not previously know about inappropriate behaviour on the part of Alex Salmond is not supported by a single shred of evidence,” a spokesperson for Sturgeon said, adding: “Sadly, she is not the first woman let down by a man she once trusted to face that charge, and regrettably she is unlikely to be the last.”

Analysts said the bitter rift between the Scottish National party’s current and former leaders could threaten its hopes of winning a majority in elections to the proportionally representative parliament on May 6.

“This issue is potentially going to be a dominant feature of that campaign,” said Mark Diffley, a consultant on Scottish political opinion.

“Although the core SNP support appears to be holding up, further revelations from this inquiry and further reports during the campaign might change some of that.”

The Scottish Conservatives said they would bring a vote of no confidence against Sturgeon on Wednesday if she did not resign. “If Nicola Sturgeon has a shred of integrity, she should be considering her position,” said Ruth Davidson, leader of the Tory group in the Scottish parliament.

But Diffley said pressure on Sturgeon would be blunted both by the fact the Scottish Conservatives had sought to oust her even before she gave evidence to the committee and by what appeared to be partisan leaks. “It muddies the waters quite a lot,” he said.

Sturgeon also commands considerable political capital. A poll by Opinium for Sky News published on Thursday suggested the SNP would get 46 per cent of the constituency vote on May 6 compared with 24 per cent for the second-placed Conservatives. The survey gave Sturgeon a net +27 personal approval rating, far higher than her main rivals.

Friday’s leak followed Thursday’s revelation that the committee had concluded by a majority that Sturgeon misled it when she said she had made clear to Salmond in a meeting on April 2 2018 that she would not intervene in the complaints process against him.

Under the Scottish ministerial code knowingly misleading parliament is a resignation matter, although the committee did not vote on whether the code had been breached or on whether Sturgeon’s account of the 2018 meeting had been intentionally inaccurate.

Sir John Curtice, politics professor at Strathclyde university, said that unless there were more damaging revelations in the committee’s report, Sturgeon’s immediate position appeared secure.

“It’s going to be a tough few days for her, but if this is the worst that she’s facing then she certainly should have a good prospect of toughing it out,” Curtice said.

Sturgeon faces a potentially more decisive ruling on whether she breached the ministerial code from her independent adviser, former Irish prosecutor James Hamilton QC, who is investigating her handling of the complaints against Salmond. Hamilton has not said when he will report, but is widely expected to do so before parliament closes for the campaign on March 25.

“Obviously Hamilton is going to be much more important,” Curtice said, adding that voters seemed unconvinced by Salmond’s claims that Sturgeon’s closest associates engaged in a “malicious and concerted” effort to remove him from public life.

In January 2019, the Scottish government was forced to concede in court that its investigation the year before into harassment complaints against Salmond by two civil servants had been unlawful because it was “procedurally unfair” and “tainted by apparent bias”. At a criminal trial in 2020, Salmond was acquitted of all 13 sexual offence charges against him.

The parliamentary inquiry has been divided largely along party lines, with Andy Wightman, a widely respected independent MSP, acting as decisive swing voter.

But in a statement on Friday, SNP committee members portrayed “the opposition” as acting together to “railroad through prejudged assertions based purely on political consideration”.