Pollsters have put Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto as the strongest contender for Indonesia’s upcoming election on Feb 14, with an electability of more than 40 per cent.
Indonesian presidential frontrunner Prabowo Subianto was jointly attacked by his two opponents again in another televised election debate, in a tag-team move that has appeared to lower the defence minister’s winning chances.
But analysts are split on whether the seemingly uncoordinated offensive by ex-Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo would pay off for them in shaving Prabowo’s lead in time for the Feb 14 presidential election, or if it might even backfire.
In the third of a five-debate series, the candidates were grilled on Sunday night (Jan 7) on the topics of defence, security, international relations and geopolitics.
It’s familiar territory for Prabowo, 72, who has been Indonesia’s defence minister for almost five years, though that did not stop his two rivals from criticising his performance at the ministry, such as accusing him of mismanaging defence procurement.
Prabowo was notably upset and said at a press conference after the debate that his rivals were not citing accurate data.
“I was a little disappointed with the quality (of the debate), especially the narratives conveyed by the other candidates. In my opinion, first of all, their data is wrong,†said a visibly sullen-looking candidate.
“Secondly, (they want to) use the issues of defence to score political points, which, in my opinion, is not permissible for statesmen.â€
Political analyst Ujang Komarudin from the University of Al Azhar Indonesia said Prabowo is being attacked because he is the frontrunner.
“Those were hard and continuous attacks because Prabowo is considered a common enemy given his high electability.
“All surveys have put Prabowo on the first spot and far ahead of the electability of Anies and Ganjar. Therefore, to bring down Prabowo, he must be attacked during the debate.â€
On Saturday, pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia, for example, released its latest survey. It shows that Prabowo’s electability is 46.9 per cent.
Anies came in second with 23.2 per cent, while Ganjar secured the last spot with 22.2 per cent.
However, a survey by the daily newspaper Kompas after Sunday’s debate showed that 79.7 per cent of its 210 respondents nationwide were satisfied with Ganjar’s performance.
A total of 71.4 per cent were satisfied with Anies’ performance, while only 48.9 per cent were satisfied with Prabowo’s performance.
NOT THE FIRST ATTACK
During the first debate on Dec 12 which covered areas in law, human rights, eradication of corruption, governance, improving public service, strengthening democracy, tackling disinformation, and managing civic harmony, Anies also focused his criticisms on Prabowo while Ganjar was more reserved.
The second debate was for the vice presidential candidates – Muhaimin Iskandar, who is teaming up with Anies, Gibran Rakabuming Raka who is Prabowo’s running mate and Mahfud MD who is the vice presidential candidate of Ganjar.
The third debate was for the presidential candidates again, and Anies and Ganjar took aim at Prabowo’s military procurement strategy as defence minister.
Anies criticised Prabowo, who is vying for the presidency for the third time in a row, for procuring billions of dollars for weaponry, while many Indonesian military personnel do not own a house.
He even went beyond by highlighting Prabowo’s personal wealth.
“While half of our soldiers do not have official residences, its minister owns 340,000 ha of land,†said Anies, claiming to cite the data President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, used during the 2019 presidential debate when the latter ran against Prabowo.
The defence minister denied Anies’ claim, but the latter continued his criticism of Prabowo on another front.
During Prabowo’s tenure, the government introduced a programme called food estate, which is coordinated by the defence ministry and aimed to establish large-scale agricultural plantations in several parts of Indonesia to ensure food security nationwide.
Depending on the location of the plantation, the crops were supposed to be rice, cassava and potato.
But Anies claimed the defence ministry’s food estate is a failed project because cassavas can barely grow on the hundreds of hectares of land procured for the scheme.
Meanwhile, Ganjar highlighted the defence ministry’s budget, saying it should account for at least 2 per cent of the gross domestic product.
However, he noted it only accounts for 0.7 per cent, and that Prabowo should have pushed for a bigger budget that included soldiers’ welfare.
“Your planning is too reckless, and you are not serious about managing the domestic defence industry,†said Ganjar. “I am doubtful about how you manage the defence budget in Indonesia.â€
Both Anies and Ganjar also criticised Prabowo’s move in the past few years, where he has bought used military equipment, claiming it was a waste of money.
However, Prabowo said it is not an issue. “When it comes to military equipment, it is not about whether it’s not new or used. But it is about the age (of the equipment).â€
For example, if it is a plane, it is the flying hours, he said. Prabowo claimed the flying hours of the equipment he procured are still good.
At one point, Anies and Ganjar seemed even to be targeting Prabowo jointly.
When it was Anies’ turn to ask Ganjar a question, he asked him how he would rate the performance of the defence ministry.
Ganjar gave a five out of 10, which Anies said is too good.
“It is 11 out of 100,†said Anies, whose laughter prompted the audience to follow suit.
THE FRONTRUNNER IS THE COMMON ENEMY
Analysts spoke to said the attacks by Anies and Ganjar will continue until the last debate involving the presidential candidates set to take place on Feb 4.
“I think this pattern (of attacking other candidates) will continue to be repeated to expose the rivals’ weaknesses as part of efforts to seek public support, especially swing voters,†said Wasisto Rahajo Jati, a political expert with the Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).
However, political analyst Ray Rangkuti from the Jakarta-based think tank Lingkar Madani told, that Anies and Ganjar were just taking advantage of the fact that Prabowo is the current defence minister.
“Because Prabowo’s argument so far has always been it is not necessary to talk much (to the public and media). What is important is to work, work, work,†said Rangkuti.
“But when the two other candidates asked about his work, he couldn’t explain himself.â€
While there is a pattern that Prabowo is being attacked by the other two, Wasisto from BRIN is doubtful about its effectiveness.
“I think it depends on the public perception because, basically, the attack is part of an effort to attract the public’s attention towards the capabilities and problem-solving abilities of each presidential candidate,†he told.
Ujang from the University of Al Azhar Indonesia thinks the attacks on Prabowo have left the debate with no winner.
“Regarding the attacks, no one won the debate because the method was not elegant. An elegant way is a soft way, a good way, a way that is pleasant for people to hear and see,†he said, adding that the offensive against Prabowo could even backfire for Anies and Ganjar.
Ujang cited, for example, how Ganjar’s electability according to opinion polls has decreased each time he and his party PDI-P criticise Prabowo.
However, Rangkuti from Lingkar Madani believes Anies and Ganjar should continue attacking Prabowo if they want to win as it would show their stance.
“For Anies, there is no other way because his stance is different (from Prabowo’s). Therefore, he needs to show that. In comparison, Ganjar’s stance is more moderate,†he said.
Prabowo is campaigning to continue Jokowi’s programme, while Anies wants a change. On the other hand, Ganjar wants to continue what he believes are good programmes under Jokowi while introducing his own schemes.
Rangkuti believed Prabowo was probably also eager to counter-attack his opponents during the debate but did not have much material to do so since the former governors have never been involved in defence matters.
Citing the Kompas post-debate survey showing how Prabowo was deemed to have fared poorest, Rangkuti also thinks attacking the defence minister would not hurt Anies and Ganjar.
“The election debate can be very influential because, according to surveys, almost 30 per cent of potential voters are still undecided,†the analyst added.
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CNA
