Belarus gave EU test it could not afford to fail

For once, the EU response was swift and assertive. European leaders meeting in Brussels on Monday evening probably exceeded expectations with their riposte to the forced diversion of a Ryanair flight on the orders of Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. Not only did they close European airports to Belarus’ national airline and instruct their own carriers to avoid its airspace, they opened the way to targeted economic sanctions, a step they had so far been reluctant take.

The EU has often appeared hesitant and weak when dealing with foreign autocrats, especially Russian president Vladimir Putin, who now holds Lukashenko on a tight leash. It imposed a travel ban and asset freezes on a handful of Russian officials responsible for crushing domestic political opposition. It did nothing in response to Russia’s massive military build-up on Ukraine’s borders earlier this year, or to recent evidence of Russian involvement in explosions at a Czech arms depot in 2014.

Lukashenko’s act was a test the EU could not afford to fail. It was also an easy one to pass. “The low expectations speak volumes,” said Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe, a think-tank.

What the EU really needs to do is reconcile these threat perceptions, but it has been unable to,” said Balfour.

A fortuitously timed summit brought EU leaders together for deliberations and compelled them to come up with a unified response. Belarus’s blatant breach of international aviation law provided a sure legal footing for action, a constant preoccupation for the EU.

“I had no doubt the EU would have a strong reaction,” said Kadri Liik of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “It was such a clear-cut case. And there are tools to react.”

Moreover, the interception of a European airliner carrying mostly EU passengers between two EU capitals was, as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen put it, an attack on European sovereignty. It transcended the divisive question of how to affect the course of domestic affairs in non-democratic countries, for which the EU often lacks real leverage.

“It is much harder for Europe to impact the situation inside Belarus,” said Liik. “Lukashenko is fighting for his political life.”

The promise of tougher EU sanctions still needs to be put into action and the process could easily become bogged down. The bloc needs to work out how to target officials, businesspeople, state entities and companies linked to the regime while minimising the impact on ordinary Belarusians. And the penalties have to be legally watertight.

Sanctions must also be approved unanimously by EU foreign affairs ministers. Cyprus last year blocked sanctions on Belarus for three months as it sought to push the EU to adopt a tougher line on Turkey. Hungary is also a potential obstacle. Its readiness to veto EU diplomatic statements — including condemnation of democratic backsliding in Hong Kong and an appeal for a ceasefire in the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas — has caused consternation in EU capitals.

So far, on the bigger decisions, Budapest has fallen into line. But, as the historian Eva Balogh notes, most national capitals wield the veto to protect their national interests, whereas Hungary seems to do it to serve the interests of other countries. The support of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban cannot be taken for granted.

The bigger problem for EU foreign policy is Russia, where the bloc lacks a strategy for advancing its interests. The relationship is shaped by sanctions and the deadlocked peace talks over the war in eastern Ukraine. Both mechanisms are frozen.

French president Emmanuel Macron has failed to win over other countries to his idea for a new dialogue with the Kremlin. Poland, the Baltic states and Sweden see Russia as an existential threat while others see it is as a commercial and geopolitical opportunity. “What the EU really needs to do is reconcile these threat perceptions, but it has been unable to,” said Balfour.

The EU-Russia relationship was “inevitably rooted in the world order and the values that underpin it, and both are in flux,” said Liik.

Putin’s meeting with US president Joe Biden in Geneva next month will be the moment to gauge the chances of a reset. The EU will then be back in the role of bystander.