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Syria’s future will take centre stage in Brussels on Tuesday as 50 countries hold talks in the grim shadow of the civil war’s 10th anniversary.
The fifth such annual conference, co-chaired by the EU and UN, is the latest international effort to relieve a shattering conflict that has sent shockwaves through the Middle East and into Europe.
Tuesday’s online gathering of foreign ministers will underscore Europe’s prominent role in providing humanitarian aid to Syria — and highlight its marginalisation in political efforts to resolve the conflict. President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal dictatorship, backed by Russia and Iran, has crushed anti-regime opposition in most of the country. But resistance persists and the country has become a battleground for international powers.
The Brussels Syria conference began in 2017 after an influx of Syrian refugees in 2015-16 sparked a political crisis in the EU. Its stated aims are “supporting the Syrian people†and mobilising the international community for a “comprehensive and credible political solution to the Syria conflictâ€.
It will be the biggest pledging event this year for Syria, where the war is estimated to have killed half a million people and displaced half the population. One of the conference’s main focuses will be political and financial aid for countries that host millions of Syrian refugees, notably Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.
The ambitions to secure peace and rebuild the country are much trickier. The conundrum for the EU is that it does not want its aid to benefit the Assad regime.
There are also divisions between member states. Some countries, notably Hungary, have maintained or even modestly increased their diplomatic representation in Damascus. But big EU member states, including France and Germany, are opposed to diplomatic moves that would “normalise†the Syrian dictatorship.
Some observers have argued that there is a slim hope Assad and his foreign backers could be forced into a political compromise. They say the regime knows it can’t win a total victory and is desperate for reconstruction money. Russia could also be tempted if it sees a potential exit strategy.
But few see the EU as a player in any such negotiation. Moscow, Tehran, Ankara and — perhaps — the new administration in Washington would have much more sway.
It would leave the EU once again struggling for leverage in a conflict in its greater neighbourhood. It would also be another sign of the desperate position of most Syrians, a decade after the revolt against tyranny began.
Chart du jour: short circuit supply
Global trade was given a shot in the arm after the Ever Given was finally dislodged from the Suez Canal. It’s good news for disrupted global supply chains, but some industries, such as European carmakers, still face chronic shortages in other areas. The Financial Times reports on the semiconductor supply squeeze that has put the breaks on one of Europe’s most productive industries. Volkswagen is one of the hardest hit, suffering a large drop in output in western Europe because of the chip shortage.
Europe in the news
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A rare bout of open warfare has erupted inside Germany’s ruling party after Angela Merkel criticised the country’s regional leaders for opening up their economies too soon, reserving especially harsh words for her heir apparent and Christian Democrat leader Armin Laschet. (FT) Laschet, leader of the populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, hit back on Monday, saying he made the decision to hit an emergency brake to curb infections, in line with the federal government’s advice. Interior minister Horst Seehofer went a step further than Merkel, saying the federal government should seize control of pandemic restriction from states. Robin Alexander at Die Welt urged the warring CDU to get its act together ahead of September’s federal elections.
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The EU should follow the lead of the US and supersize its recovery package to match the $2.8tn Washington has poured into its economy since the start of the pandemic, according to the Centre for European Reform. The result could be a speedier recovery for the embattled eurozone economy, argued Christian Odendahl and John Springford — echoing recent calls from France’s Emmanuel Macron. But eurogroup president Paschal Donohoe has come out to defend the bloc’s recovery effort, urging against stimulus envy and warning that “one country’s growth at the expense of its neighbours is not sustainableâ€. (FT)
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EU ambassadors will meet on Tuesday to try to thrash out an agreement on how to distribute 10m vaccines after demands from badly hit countries for extra jabs. The meeting comes after Austria threatened to veto an EU decision to call upon 100m additional doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine in protest at not being given part of the 10m stock, diplomats have told the Brussels Briefing.
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Veteran foreign correspondent Martin Fletcher wrote scathingly about how allegations about former UK prime minister David Cameron’s relationship with financier Lex Greenshill left him wondering “whether I live in a corrupt country of the sort that Britain once regarded with pity and disdainâ€. (New Statesmen)
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The EU will fund five new camps for refugees in Greece to the tune of €250m. EU home affairs commissioner Ylva Johansson announced the camps on a visit to the Greek islands of Lesbos and Samos on Monday, where she was greeted with protest from locals unhappy with the build-up of migrants. The commissioner also called on Turkey to start accepting migrants from Greece. (Guardian)
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CaixaBank, one of Spain’s largest banks, has merged with rival Bankia to create a European megabank. The man steering the new venture is Gonzalo Gortázar, who told the FT why the giant lender will have “nowhere to hideâ€.
Coming up today
Day two of the Brussels Syria conference will feature Josep Borrell, EU foreign policy chief, and Oliver Varhelyi, commissioner for enlargement policy.
EU ambassadors will meet to discuss how to distribute 10m vaccine doses among member states.
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