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Joe Biden is on the brink of securing final approval from Congress for his $1.9tn stimulus bill — a bet that massive fiscal intervention aimed at lower and middle-class families will speed up America’s recovery without overheating the economy.

After the US Senate voted to approve the package on Saturday, the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is poised to give its final green light to the bill on Tuesday, allowing it to be signed into law by the president. Barring any last-minute trouble in the House, where Democrats hold a slim majority, the stimulus legislation will mark a big political victory for Biden, who has made it his top priority since entering the White House on January 20.

The stimulus bill — known as the American Rescue Plan — represents one of the largest US government interventions in the economy of the post-world war two era — just short of the size of the $2.2tn March 2020 pandemic stimulus, but larger than the $787bn recovery plan during the 2009 financial crisis.

The prospects for its passage have led many private-sector economists to upgrade their 2021 US growth forecasts. Federal Reserve officials are likely to do the same when they publish their latest economic projections next week.

But the plan has attracted criticism from Republican lawmakers — who have unanimously opposed the plan — as well as some economists, including Lawrence Summers, the Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton — who say it risks a harmful spike in inflation.

A recent sell-off in long-term government debt — with yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rising above 1.5 per cent for the first time in more than a year — has fuelled those concerns, though senior US policymakers including Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary, and Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, have dismissed the worries.

Coronavirus digest

• Two MPs in German chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right bloc resigned following disclosures that they had personally profited from government deals to procure coronavirus face masks. (FT)

• The EU will urge the US to permit the export of millions of doses of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine as Brussels attempts to bridge supply shortfalls. (FT)

• The UK is calling up those aged from 56 to 59 for their Covid-19 jab as the NHS vaccination programme continues apace, with more than a third of the adult population inoculated. (FT)

• The US economy created 379,000 jobs in February, pointing to a sharp rebound in the country’s labour market amid a rapid decline in coronavirus cases nationwide. (FT)

• More than half of adults in rich countries will still be waiting to receive a first dose of coronavirus vaccine in 15 months’ time, the head of a logistics group distributing jabs has warned. (FT)

The US and EU governments must balance the political imperative to prioritise their own citizens with collaboration to ensure vaccines reach those who need them most, writes our editorial board. Follow our live coronavirus coverage.

In the news

Biden enlists ‘Quad’ allies to counter China President Joe Biden is poised to hold the first ever quadrilateral US summit with the leaders of Japan, India and Australia, as the four countries step up co-operation in an effort to counter Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. (FT)

China set to cut number of directly elected lawmakers in Hong Kong The new election law will sharply reduce the proportion of democratically elected legislators and consolidate Beijing’s grip on the territory. Chinese officials believe that further safeguards are needed to ensure that “patriots” run Hong Kong’s government after pro-democracy protests rocked the territory in 2019. (FT)

ECB quizzes banks over exposure to Greensill and Gupta Europe’s top banking regulator has asked the continent’s lenders for details of their exposure to stricken Greensill Capital and its key client GFG Alliance, as officials try to understand whether the crisis is contained. (FT)

Germany urges new outreach to Moscow Berlin has called for greater co-operation with Russia on climate change. This contentious proposal to “selectively engage” the Kremlin highlights deepening EU internal divisions over how to handle Moscow. (FT)

Asia bourses look to join Spacs craze The Indonesia Stock Exchange has become the third Asian bourse, after Hong Kong and Singapore, to explore allowing special purpose acquisition vehicles. Investors have poured almost $3bn into Spacs focused on acquiring Asian companies this year, nearly doubling the amount committed during all of 2020. (FT)

Airlines to redraw routes Carriers are upgrading the importance of once-marginal destinations as they redraw route maps to focus on flights where demand remains strongest in the aftermath of Covid-19. With leisure and business travel plunging on key transatlantic routes, some carriers have been tapping into demand for flights to south Asia, west Africa and Latin America. (FT)

Switzerland votes in favour of ‘burka ban’ Voters have narrowly approved a nationwide ban on face coverings that will outlaw full-face Islamic veils, despite opposition from the federal government and the Muslim community. (FT)

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe faces new court case Dominic Raab, Britain’s foreign secretary, has called on Iran to end the “cruel and intolerable ordeal” endured by the charity worker as she faced another court case despite being released from house arrest. (FT)

The day ahead

Policymaker presentations Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will address the economic outlook after the Covid-19 pandemic in a speech at the Resolution Foundation and Bank of Japan deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya also speaks on Monday. Tokyo releases GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2020. (FT)

Schools in England reopen Almost all English pupils will restart face-to-face lessons on Monday as first part of the UK government’s “road map” to reopening the economy begins. (FT)

International Women’s Day 2021 The theme for this year’s celebrations is choose to challenge, with events taking place around the world to call out gender bias and inequality. (IWD)

What else we’re reading

Inside the ‘Covid Triangle’ While coronavirus has inflicted extraordinary suffering across the UK, one corner of east London has been so pummelled that it has become known as the “Covid Triangle”. The three boroughs — Barking and Dagenham, Redbridge and Newham — at one point competed for the highest infection rate in the country. (FT)

The painful politics of vaccination We humans are not selfish, but we can be self-centred, writes Tim Harford. We just need the occasional reminder to look out for each other. And as we enter a new phase of the pandemic, we must not forget why we have made such painful sacrifices. (FT)

10 years after the tsunami and Fukashima The March 11 2011 earthquake, resultant tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disaster, caused 470,000 residents to flee their homes in northeastern Japan. A decade later $280bn has been spent on reconstruction but it has not been enough to persuade many to return. (Nikkei Asian Review)

Do young people really need the office? Homeworking may not allow for the same informal, on-the-job learning young professionals could pick up in the office. But there is a risk to romanticising a return to the office as a cure-all to every work problem, writes Emma Jacobs. (FT)

Yoga influencers have stretched themselves The yoga guru and his ashram have been superseded by the influencer and her platform. Companies like Lululemon and Adidas, which recently launched a new Formotion range of women’s exercise clothing, have capitalised, writes John Gapper. (FT)