Joe Biden has a narrow window to save Iran deal

Joe Biden’s goal of rejoining the Iran nuclear agreement that Donald Trump sought to dismantle was always going to be a testing process. Trump’s decision to abandon the 2015 accord three years ago and impose crippling sanctions on the Islamic republic destroyed whatever modicum of “detente” existed between longtime foes.

Tehran justifiably blames Washington for first violating an accord that Iran complied with prior to Trump’s punitive measures. Emboldened regime hardliners, who long resisted a deal with the “Great Satan”, feel vindicated. Biden, meanwhile, has to balance reviving a deal that many in his administration invested heavily in with navigating Congressional opposition and not appearing soft on an oppressive regime that stokes instability across the region.

The result has been a stand-off as each side insists the other has to make the first move. Washington says Iran must return to full compliance; Tehran demands that sanctions are first lifted. But it is in both parties’ interests to move forward and compromise if they are to ensure the survival of an agreement designed to prevent a Middle East arms race. There are at least tentative signs that the stand-off may be easing. The two sides have signalled they are capable of making gestures that display a seriousness to keep the accord alive.

Tehran last weekend reached a compromise with the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Iran’s nuclear activity, after threatening to suspend snap inspections. Tehran will allow some “verifications” to continue for three months. This provides a window that the Biden administration and the European signatories to the deal must use to create the conditions to engage with Iran on the next steps.

The US has begun to ease Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign. It has relaxed travel restrictions on Iranian diplomats at the UN in New York and offered to sit with Iranian officials and the other signatories to the accord — Germany, France, the UK, China and Russia. Tehran has not confirmed that it will participate.

Progress, however incremental, must be built on. The Biden administration could do more to gain Tehran’s confidence without submitting to Iran’s demands to lift sanctions. As the Islamic republic grapples with an economy battered by sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, Washington should offer some relief. One option would be to permit crude importers, such as South Korea and Japan, to grant Iran access to billions of dollars of its oil money they hold. Tehran could use the funds to import unsanctioned “humanitarian” goods such as food and medicine, including Covid-19 vaccines.

The US should also provide waivers on sanctions that prevent Iran shipping out excess enriched uranium and heavy water. Trump’s decision to end the waivers was ridiculous; Iran has to export the materials if it is to reduce its stockpiles to comply with the accord. European nations need to co-ordinate between Tehran and Washington to create a road map that leads to Iran’s full compliance and the removal of US sanctions. Iran must not take any more provocative steps to expand its nuclear activity. It should use its influence over Iraqi militias to halt their attacks on US personnel and assets in Iraq.

The 2015 deal has its flaws and fails to address Iran’s missile programme and regional activity. But if Washington and Tehran can find a diplomatic route for both to fully comply with the accord, it could provide a platform to begin tougher, longer term efforts to address those concerns. Failure at the first hurdle will only lead to greater instability and raise the risk of conflict.