Nicola Sturgeon’s survival sparks battle to save the Union

Sometimes, profound events in history can hinge on shifts in the fortunes of a single individual. At times in recent weeks, the career of Scotland’s top politician has appeared in real jeopardy. After an independent probe cleared Nicola Sturgeon of any breach of Scotland’s ministerial code in her handling of sexual misconduct complaints against her onetime mentor Alex Salmond, her job is safe. The political survival of Scotland’s pro-independence first minister could yet have long-term repercussions for the future of the UK.

A Scottish parliamentary committee did conclude that Sturgeon misled it in her account of an April 2018 meeting with Salmond — a potential breach of the code. It added that it was “inappropriate” for the first minister to have continued to meet her predecessor after she knew of complaints against him by women, and it was “hard to believe” she did not know of concerns over his conduct earlier than she has asserted. But the committee split 5-4 on party lines, with members of Sturgeon’s party backing the first minister.

More significant was the independent investigation by James Hamilton, a former Irish Director of Public Prosecutions, that on Monday cleared Sturgeon of any code breach. That enabled her to defeat an opposition no-confidence motion on Tuesday. Salmond, meanwhile, has so far failed to produce evidence to support his inflammatory claims of a conspiracy by his former Scottish National party colleagues to remove him from political life, even if that meant sending him to jail.

The SNP is no longer in danger of a spectacular implosion on the eve of Scotland’s most consequential parliamentary election since devolution. The feud between current and former leaders is no longer set to dominate the campaign. The party and its central cause have, though, been dented.

While Salmond was acquitted on 13 sexual assault charges last March, he admitted in his trial to sometimes inappropriate behaviour towards women — something often obscured by the later focus on Sturgeon’s political conduct. Sturgeon avoided any temptation to seek a quieter way through and allowed justice to take its course. But she and her government have been severely criticised for mistakes in handling complaints against Salmond — which have cost Scottish taxpayers large sums in legal costs, and left some complainants deeply disillusioned.

Scotland’s political and judicial institutions have emerged badly from the affair and the subsequent investigations. Westminster, too, has handled misconduct allegations poorly. But the case for Scottish independence has long rested on the claim that Scotland could run its affairs better.

Even if the SNP falls short of the post-election majority for which it previously seemed on course, however, polling suggests that, with the Greens, the pro-independence lobby is likely to have the numbers to back a request to Westminster for a second independence referendum. Unionists and Boris Johnson’s Conservative government must accept that no deus ex machina seems likely to avert such an outcome.

The argument that the aftermath of a catastrophic pandemic is no time to launch far-reaching constitutional upheavals will find sympathy among Scottish voters. Unionists have weighty arguments to deploy on the fiscal and economic risks of independence. Yet they must also build a resonant emotional case for the benefits to Scotland of continuing in the UK. The success of Covid-19 vaccinations, with procurement handled by Westminster, has handed unionists a positive argument. To be sure of preserving the UK, they will need to find plenty more.