Professor Lockdown warns June 21 ‘freedom day’ is ‘in the balance’

Furious Tories today threatened to revolt if Boris Johnson tries to scrap the June 21 ‘freedom day’ over Indian variant fears.

The PM is facing mounting unrest amid warnings that the big unlocking in England is ‘in the balance’ – and could be pushed back or watered down.

Mr Johnson tried to strike a positive tone at PMQs this afternoon, saying he had looked at the data again this morning and there was ‘increasing confidence’ that vaccines work against ‘all variants, including the Indian variant’. 

But former minister Mark Harper, head of the lockdown sceptic Covid Recovery Group, said he expected social distancing to be axed in full, and pointed out that there would need to be a Commons vote. 

Tory MP Marcus Fysh added: ‘I won’t be supporting or observing restrictions after 21st June while hospitalisations continue to be manageable. Rationality needs to return.’ 

One Cabinet minister told MailOnline there would be ‘serious trouble’ from the Conservative benches if Mr Johnson does not stick to the date for lifting almost all restrictions. 

And the Tory council leader in Bolton raised alarm about ‘civil unrest’ in the town if it is placed under a local lockdown.  

The government has admitted a review of social distancing rules that had been expected this month could be delayed as they wrestle with the response to the latest variant. Health Secretary Matt Hancock is due to hold a press conference in Downing Street at 5pm. 

Asked by Labour leader Keir Starmer whether mutant strains was the biggest risk for the loosening, Mr Johnson said: ‘I certainly think that is one of the issues that we must face.’

He added: ‘We’ve looked at the data again this morning and I can tell the House we have increasing confidence that vaccines are effective against all variants, including the Indian variant.’

Earlier, Prof Neil Ferguson – known as Professor Lockdown – was pressed during an interview for his ‘hunch’ about whether the next stage of the roadmap would go ahead on schedule.

‘I think that is being actively considered,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

‘It is very much in the balance. The data collected in the next two-three weeks will determine that.’  

He said it was not yet clear how much more transmissible the Indian variant is, but added: ‘Certainly, it is much easier to deal with 20 per cent, even 30 per cent (more transmissibility) than it would be 50 per cent or more.

‘The challenge we have… is because of how it was introduced into the country.

‘It was introduced from overseas, principally into people with Indian ethnicity, a higher chance of living in multi-generational households and often in quite deprived areas with high density housing, and so we’re trying to work out whether the rapid growth we’ve seen in areas such as Bolton is going to be typical of what we could expect elsewhere, or is really what is called a founder effect which is often seen in these circumstances.

‘There’s a little bit of, I would say, glimmer of hope from the recent data that whilst this variant does still appear to have a significant growth advantage, the magnitude of that advantage seems to have dropped a little bit with the most recent data, so the curves are flattening a little, but it will take more time for us to be definitive about that.’ 

There have been signs of rising optimism in government, buoyed by the sight of people queuing for jabs in hotspot areas like Bolton, and official data showing that the epidemic is continuing to shrink.

The latest figures revealed that, despite concern about the Indian variant, average daily cases are down by 2.6 per cent on the previous week.

Daily hospital admissions in England fell to just 70. And the total number of Covid patients in hospital in England now stands at just 798, the lowest figure since the middle of September.

David Greenhalgh, Conservative leader at Bolton Council, told Today there was no sign yet that cases were coming under control, adding that ‘our cases are still rising’.

And he warned of ‘unrest’ in the town if there was an attempt to lock it down.

‘We are putting all the measures in that we can at the moment. We have community spread, there’s no doubt about that, and we’re holding back a variant that would appear – although the evidence is still being gathered – to be a little bit more transmissible, easily transmissible,’ he said.

‘The majority of our cases are in very much our younger age groups – primary school, secondary school and in their 20s.

‘We still haven’t got an increase in hospitalisation and severe illness, which is hugely welcome, those figures still remain low. We’re doing everything we can, the Government has sent in surge vaccinations, surge testing … We’re doing everything we can, but I think the next two weeks we will still see our cases rising.’

Mr Greenhalgh said he was not in favour of local lockdowns, adding that ‘people travel 50 yards across a county boundary to access hospitality that they can’t in their own area’.

He said there was a ‘danger of unrest’ if Bolton was locked down, adding: ‘The people of Bolton have a great spirit and they come together when times are difficult, but this would be a very, very difficult situation to manage, I believe – if we went into a lockdown that we have experience of, personally experienced, in a town, that did not work.’

Senior Tories believe that the blaze of publicity about the Indian variant is boosting vaccine take up amongst hard-to-reach groups.

Government sources have also played down reports that the PM is considering a return to local lockdowns.

While ministers have refused to rule out the idea in public, the source said: ‘No-one wants local lockdowns – I don’t think that is a realistic option.

‘There would have to be a very strong case to go down that road again – the Indian variant would have to be severely more transmissible, you would need evidence the vaccine is not working and you would have to be seeing a big impact on hospitalisation.

‘We do still need a bit more data, but that is not how it is looking at the moment.’

At the weekend, ministers suggested there would be no update on the next stage of unlocking until mid-June.

But a Downing Street source last night said it could now come as soon as next week.

One Cabinet source said: ‘There has been a wobble but it feels like we are heading in the right direction again.’

A senior minister told MailOnline: ‘Barring a huge increase in cases from the Indian variant I would expect us to be going ahead,’ they said.

They insisted they trusted the PM’s instincts. ‘His instincts are in the right place. He has only shifted on lockdowns when it has been absolutely necessary.

‘The threat is something that can get around the vaccines. None of us minds getting a cold.’ 

Mr Johnson said yesterday that data from hotspots including Bolton, Blackburn, Bedford and Sefton were being examined to find out more about the impact of the variant.

Asked whether local lockdowns could be used, Mr Johnson said: ‘We’ve just got to be cautious about the way we approach it and we will be letting people know as much as we can, as soon as we can.

‘But at the moment we don’t see anything conclusive that makes us think we have to deviate from the road map.’

Tory MPs yesterday urged ministers not to return to the controversial Covid tiers that applied across much of England last autumn.

Reports yesterday suggested that ministers were considering contingency plans that would see Tier Four measures imposed in areas where the new variant is spreading fast.

This would involve the closure of non-essential shops and hospitality.

Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs, said there should be no reason why the next stage of unlocking from coronavirus restrictions should not go ahead on June 21.

He said the data surrounding coronavirus is ‘continuing to move in a positive direction, and actually far more positive than anybody had anticipated at the outset’.

Former minister Jake Berry, chairman of the Northern Research Group of MPs, said there was no appetite for a return to tiers, which kept large swathes of the North locked down for months without halting the spread of the virus.

Mr Berry said: ‘We certainly should not be bringing in a tiers system or delaying the lifting of lockdown because some people are refusing the vaccine.

‘Localised lockdowns were very divisive last time – and in the end proved about as much use as a one-legged man in an a***-kicking contest.’

Mark Logan, Tory MP for Bolton North East, said the government was right to focus on surge testing and increased vaccinations to tackle the spike in cases in the town, which spent months in extended lockdowns last year.

Mr Logan said: ‘Bolton has had it tougher than most of the rest of the country and we don’t want to go back to that.

‘For us, it’s all about vaccines and testing. The vaccines are working – we just need to get more of them done, and it is happening.’

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said the focus should instead be on accelerating the vaccine programme in hotspots.

He said: ‘Last year, tiers did not work – they did not stop the spread of the virus.

‘It would be hard for me to put out a message of caution in Greater Manchester when nationally the messaging is very different, that the road map is proceeding. We struggled with that mixed messaging all of last year.’

The Department of Health counted another 2,412 positive tests and seven deaths yesterday, with with cases down 2.5 per cent. 

Another 106,733 people got first vaccine doses yesterday along with 259,049 second doses, meaning more than 36.8million Britons have had at least one jab and 20.5million are fully vaccinated. 

Figures from the Wellcome Sanger Institute revealed the Indian variant had been spotted in 127 English local authorities – or 40 per cent – in the two weeks ending May 8, the most recent data, after the total number doubled in a week. Nationally, there have been 2,323 cases of the variant – four times the 520 ten days ago – and the strain now makes up at least one in five of all new infections.

Surge testing began today in Nuneaton in Warwickshire and Bedford – where the variant cases surged 20-fold during April – to try and weed out clusters of infections caused by the new strain. 

Cabinet ministers met today to try to thrash out a strategy to curb the new variant, with emergency plans that could see local restrictions used to combat hotspots while the rest of the country relaxes.

In an echo of the tiers system brought in last summer, people in the worst-hit areas could be told to stay at home and restaurants and shops forced to close – with stricken businesses handed more grants to keep them afloat.