Verizon, T-Mobile And AT&T Lay Out Vision For Future Of 5G In US

At long last, the future of 5G in the US—at least for the next several years—is now much clearer.

Thanks to last week’s series of long, detailed financial analyst events held by the three major US carriers—Verizon, T-Mobile, and AT&T—we finally know how, what, and when extended 5G services will become available here. The news came immediately on the heels of a government imposed “silent” waiting period after the C-Band auction (see “C-Band Auction Points To Dramatic Shift In 5G” for more) during which the carriers were prevented from discussing the details of what they won and how they plan to deploy the critical new RF radio spectrum they just spent $81 billion to access.

The news is vitally important because, while we’ve technically had 5G service here in the US for a while now (since roughly the middle of 2019), it hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype and expectations for it. With the eventual introduction of the critical “mid-band” frequencies that the C-Band auction provided access to, however, we should finally start to see the kinds of dramatically improved speeds across all three carriers that we were originally promised. Of course, exactly what everyone is going to do with all that speed isn’t entirely clear yet—but it’s hard to argue with the thought of a faster, higher capacity, more responsive, more reliable, and “smarter” set of wireless networks.

What made these analyst events particularly newsworthy was that they not only included details on how each of the carriers planned to leverage their new C-Band spectrum, but they also provided some fascinating insights into the strategies and approaches that they each intend to follow. Interestingly, some of the companies’ intentions came through what they said, but another part was only discernible by figuring out what they didn’t say.

Appropriately, Verizon—the largest US carrier and the biggest spender in the C-Band auction—kicked off the week’s events by hosting an early evening event (timed to start at the exact end of the quiet period) that featured a rapid-fire burst of announcements about its aggressive plans for the roughly 160 MHz of C-Band spectrum it acquired the license to use. Most importantly, the company said that it is already starting to build out the necessary cell towers and other network infrastructure to make the first 60 MHz of that spectrum available for use as soon as its cleared—ideally by the end of this year, but likely spilling into early 2022 for much of the country. Notably, the company said that it had set aside an extra $10 billion over the next three years to build out its network for C-Band spectrum—a figure on top of the $17-$18 billion its already budgeted to spend annually on these essential capital improvements.

Through these kinds of monetary commitments, as well as other statements, Verizon made it clear that, while it still plans to continue enhancing the high-speed, albeit limited, range millimeter wave-based 5G network around which it initially built its 5G strategy, the company’s new focus for 5G is going to be mid-band. Somewhat surprisingly, Verizon said it intends to call this service Ultra Wideband—the same name the company had previously used to distinguish its mmWave-based offerings from the competition. Implied in this name change (but not directly stated) is that mmWave will be shifting to more of a support role that can be used in certain specialized applications and very specific geographical environments (such as inside stadiums and dense urban centers). The C-Band based version of Ultra Wideband, on the other hand, will form the backbone of the mainstream Verizon 5G network. Though it might seem minor, this is actually a significant shift in strategy and reflects the realization that—as with virtually every other country around the world with active 5G networks—most of the wireless traffic will be carried on the critical mid-band radio frequencies (typically 2.5-4 GHz).

Speaking of which, T-Mobile (now the second largest carrier in the US and the second to hold an event) spent most of its analyst meeting talking about the significant head start it has in mid-band 5G and explaining how the company believes it can sustain that advantage over time. While T-Mobile did acquire 27 MHz of C-Band spectrum licenses, its purchases are part of what are called the B and C Block of C-Band, which won’t be available for use until the end of 2023. (FYI, in addition to the 60 MHz it plans to deploy this year, Verizon has 100 MHz additional spectrum in these B and C blocks and AT&T’s C-Band total haul of 80 MHz is evenly split across the A Block that comes available at the end of this year and B and C Blocks coming in 2023.) As a result, though T-Mobile certainly mentioned its C-Band results, it spent more of its event discussing how the company is already deploying the 160 MHz of 2.5 GHz mid-band spectrum that it acquired from Sprint. In particular, T-Mo pointed to average 300 Mbps download speeds (just under 10X the current national average 4G speeds of about 35 Mpbs) and peak speeds of about 1 Gbps in the cities where it has begun using these mid-band frequencies for 5G.

T-Mobile also spent a fair amount of time talking about a key new application for the higher speeds and advanced reach of a mid-band frequency powered 5G network—the ability to deliver wireless broadband services to both businesses and homes across large swaths of the country through a technology called Fixed Wireless Access (FWA). The week before, T-Mobile had officially announced its Home Office Internet solution for employees who work from home and said that a consumer-focused version—designed to compete directly against cable broadband providers such as Comcast, Cox, etc.—would be unveiled before the end of the month. During its event a day earlier, Verizon had also talked about FWA-based service offerings, and how it could leverage some of its new C-Band spectrum to supplement and expand the mmWave-based 5G Home Internet wireless broadband service it currently has in limited US cities. What’s especially interesting is that the high bandwidth requirements necessary to power home broadband is one of the first groundbreaking differences that 5G could bring to the market vs. 4G. Though there have been some limited 4G-based broadband trials, making a wireless broadband service widely available and mainstream is a concrete example of the potential benefits that 5G can enable.

At the same time, there are some who question the ability of 5G to handle broadband connections to the home—particularly for uplink purposes—which leads us to the final event of the week, hosted by AT&T. Unlike its competitors, AT&T spent very little time discussing its C-Band acquisition other than to note that it was planning to deploy the first 40 MHz in a similar time frame as Verizon—ideally the end of this year, but certainly within one year. Instead, the company talked a fair bit about extending its network of optical fiber, which it pointed out can be used to provide a critical backbone for its wireless 5G network, as well as direct-to-home fiber-based broadband services that it currently offers. In addition, the company spent a good portion of time discussing its HBO Max streaming service and the tremendous success it has seen, as well as other content properties it acquired from the 2018 Time Warner purchase. In part, this reflects the broader purview that AT&T has versus its competitors, both of whom are significantly more focused on wireless services. Interestingly, however, it also arguably reflects a more reasoned approach to 5G, with an implicit recognition that it’s something that’s still evolving and not something that many people are clamoring to have.

Ultimately, the three events highlighted the different strategies, opportunities, and challenges facing the big three US carriers along with the various approaches they’re taking to address them. At the same time, these events also brought tangible proof that the 5G revolution is indeed upon us here in the US, and real progress is being made. Finally, from a competitive perspective, they also made clear the significant advantage that T-Mobile currently enjoys on the 5G wireless service side, and highlighted how much money, time, and effort it’s going to take for the others to catch up.

Disclosure: TECHnalysis Research is a tech industry market research and consulting firm and, like all companies in that field, works with many technology vendors as clients, some of whom may be listed in this article.