Biden, BlackRock and climate bubble trouble

Starting before the November 2016 US presidential election, there was considerable discussion in financial circles concerning “transition risk,” or financial risk associated with a transition away from fossil fuels.

A particularly prominent voice was the then-governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. In a now-famous September 29, 2015, speech at Lloyds of London, Carney stated::

Changes in policy, technology and physical risks could prompt a reassessment of the value of a large range of assets as costs and opportunities become apparent. The speed at which such re-pricing occurs is uncertain and could be decisive for financial stability…. While a given physical manifestation of climate change – a flood or storm – may not directly affect a corporate bond’s value, policy action to promote the transition towards a low-carbon economy could spark a fundamental reassessment… [A] wholesale reassessment of prospects, especially if it were to occur suddenly, could potentially destabilize markets, spark a pro-cyclical crystallization of losses and a persistent tightening of financial conditions.

Carney has been in the middle of the process of creating an international framework of agreements and financial arrangements in the direction of a “fundamental reshaping of financial markets” by climate policy.

In 2019, while still Bank of England governor, Carney practically called upon investors to drop their financial exposure to fossil fuel-connected assets. In a BBC interview on January 30 that year, he highlighted the threat to pension funds, warning that:

 Up to 80% of global coal assets and up to half the world’s proven oil reserves could become stranded assets as the world moves to curb carbon emissions and [as] supplies of clean, renewable energy continue to replace fossil fuels.

What is the size of the carbon bubble?

Start with the most obvious component, state and private ownership of or extraction rights to proven reserves of oil, gas and coal. It is very roughly estimated that a 2% decline in demand for fossil fuels every year, required by the Paris Agreement on climate change would cause a loss of $25 trillion in future income from coal, oil and gas at present prices.

Not just investors but, especially, developing countries would be hard hit. A 2017 bulletin of the International Monetary fund, “Unburnable Wealth of Nations” states:

[I]f there are successful global actions to address climate change, poorer countries that are rich in fossil fuels will likely face a precipitous fall in the value of their coal, gas, and oil deposits. If the world makes a permanent move away from using fossil fuels, the likely result will be a huge reduction in the value of [those countries’] national and natural wealth.

That is just part of the story, however.

To get a vivid sense of the magnitude of the assets that will become stranded, one must take into account not only the fossil fuels themselves but also:

• coal mines,
• the oil and gas extraction industry,
• land values in regions of extraction,
• pipelines and pipeline construction companies,
• oil and LNG tanker fleets and tanker construction,
• harbor and storage facilities,
• refineries,
• fueling stations,
• coal yards,
• fossil fuel power and heating plants,
• coal-based steel plants,
• significant parts of the auto industry supply chains tied to production of internal combustion engines,
• and much, much more.

Some credible estimates say that 20-30% of the total market capitalization of the world’s stock exchanges is tied to fossil fuels. Whatever the actual figure, we can be sure that it will be more than sufficient to cause a financial meltdown if significant numbers of investors were suddenly to drop these asset categories.

Whether or not this will happen depends to a significant extent on perceptions of how fast and how far the Biden administration is willing to go.

So far Big Oil has shown no signs of panic. One could argue that the economic interests tied with fossil fuels are so deeply embedded in the political structure of the US, and of the world, that even the power of the US government would not be enough to defeat them.

According to that view, Biden is basically bluffing, that it’s just political talk and the promised end of the era of fossil fuels is not going to happen.

But how much are you ready to bet on that? Powerful forces within the financial community appear to be readying for a collapse of the carbon bubble – and intend to profit from it.

In fact, some voices argue in favor of deliberately provoking the collapse as soon as possible, before the carbon bubble grows even larger with massive amounts of investment continuing to flow into fossil fuel infrastructure worldwide. The collapse is inevitable, they argue, so better for it to happen sooner than later. 

Financial losses from climate change are certain to be larger, is the key argument. Ever more frequent floods, fires, drought, extreme storms will be bad for many investments and especially bad for insurance companies.

How will investors place their bets in the coming period?

In reality, a transition away from fossil fuels – which are still the foundation of the world economy – can only occur gradually over decades. But market expectations can shift within minutes. 

In his first weeks in office, Biden has sent strong signals that he means business about getting the world off fossil fuels, starting with the US itself. The signals include America’s return to the Paris climate agreement, termination of the Keystone XL pipeline project, a moratorium on new oil and gas leases on public lands, an instruction to federal agencies to purchase large numbers of electric cars and a declaration of intent to end fossil fuel subsidies.

The day after Biden’s January 27 Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad was issued, Fortune Magazine wrote, “Oil and gas companies knew they would face a fight with President Joe Biden, who had campaigned on tackling climate change. Nobody expected fossil fuel to come under such an immediate attack.”

Jonathan Tennenbaum received his PhD in mathematics from the University of California in 1973 at age 22. Also a physicist, linguist and pianist, he is a former editor of FUSION magazine. He lives in Berlin and travels frequently to Asia and elsewhere, consulting on economics, science and technology.